Experts warn of consequences if the US cuts aid to Ukraine
(Dan Tri) – If the US stops providing aid to Ukraine, it will be a bad scenario for Kiev and will quickly affect the battlefield situation in Ukraine, an expert said.
Ukrainian soldiers control a tank (Photo: AFP).
The US has been the largest aid donor to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out.
However, the temporary budget bill passed by the US Congress last weekend to prevent the risk of a government shutdown eliminated the additional aid package for Ukraine.
This raises long-standing concerns among observers that the persistent war in Ukraine and the approaching presidential election in the US will cause Washington and its allies to run out of steam in aid activities to Kiev.
Mark Cancian, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), commented that Ukraine will soon run out of ammunition and necessary weapons if hard-line Republican lawmakers in the US succeed in
`That (US stopping aid) would be a bad scenario for Ukraine. The Ukrainian army would weaken, even collapse, even if only in a defensive position,` Mr. Cancian said.
He emphasized: `If the US completely cuts aid to Ukraine (which the White House affirms will not happen), the impact will not be felt immediately because Washington will continue to implement previous aid commitments.
However, according to him, the impact will quickly appear after a few weeks.
On the other hand, he pointed out, Moscow might not even be able to take advantage because `the Russians were pretty exhausted by then.`
In the field, the US cutting aid will also lead to the weakening of Ukraine’s air defense force, which is equipped with many complex systems by a number of countries and must be constantly supplied with ammunition.
James Black, Deputy Director of security and defense research at RAND, explained that these systems cannot be replaced by other systems even though the way they operate is not much different.
`Without American components, the effectiveness of the integrated weapons system will decrease and it will take years, even decades, for European systems to be completely replaced,` Mr. Black said.
However, that is just an assumption.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he believes that removing the Ukrainian aid package from the budget bill is just a small issue, not a systemic change in US policy towards Kiev.
A Ukrainian soldier also said that disagreements in US politics related to the issue of aid to Ukraine are mainly due to the impact of next year’s presidential election.