Ukraine’s calculations when attacking the Russian fleet

(Dan Tri) – Ukrainian officials announced that Kiev’s recent raids on Crimea were intended to cause difficulties for Russian forces on the peninsula.

A Russian warship in the Black Sea (Photo: NYT).

After the latest attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean peninsula, Mr. Mykhailo Podolyak, senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told Ukrainian television that such attacks are happening.

According to Mr. Podolyak, Russians on the Crimean peninsula are having to live on alert with sirens signaling impending attacks, which creates the feeling that Crimean airspace is no longer controlled by Moscow.

Mr. Podolyak said that the attacks on Crimea were aimed at blocking Russia’s ability to transport weapons and equipment by train.

`Crimea today is the key to significantly weakening the combat capabilities of Russian units,` the adviser to the President of Ukraine said, adding that the Kerch Strait will also be another important target in the wars.

Rising attacks on Crimea and escalating tensions in the Black Sea two months after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a United Nations-brokered deal that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting tens of millions

`The key to the current attacks on the Black Sea Fleet is the issue of grain and exports on a larger scale,` said Simon Miles, an expert at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and a researcher.

Ukraine supplies about 10% of the world’s wheat exports and about half of the world’s sunflower oil, earning it the nickname `Europe’s bread basket`.

Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture earlier this month showed that Ukraine’s grain exports in September were down more than 50% compared to this time last year, underscoring the need for access to Black Sea ports for agricultural production.

`If Ukraine cannot export grain, its budget problem will be even more serious,` said expert Miles.

However, the Ukrainian navy said this week that in recent weeks, Kiev had established a new shipping corridor in the Black Sea to avoid Russia’s blockade of ports.

Times quoted experts as reporting that Ukrainian forces have increased their attacks on the Russian fleet in combination with the new corridor to prevent Russia from blocking this route.

In addition, reclaiming Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, is the main goal of Ukrainian defense officials.

`Of course retaking Crimea is the ultimate goal of Ukraine’s leaders, they have been clear about this, but I think in the near term they are trying to persuade Russia to change the risk calculation of seizing Russia.`